With Green Hydrogen Too Expensive, Where Is The Opportunity? Carbon Removal and RNG.

As companies seek pathways that allow them to meet emissions goals without breaking the bank, we see RNG and credit purchases as options, but each lacks enough availability. Some targets will need resetting.
The renewable fuels industry cannot ignore waste and biomass as possible feedstocks because inputs are abundant and, in some cases, energy needs are more manageable – fuels are likely more valuable than plastics.
Public markets do not like these businesses/pathways today, and we do not see that changing soon. Progress over the next few years will likely come primarily from large industry players, despite Shell’s backtracking.
While a little surprising, the strength we have seen in US chemical margins YTD will likely linger at least through hurricane season. The very early arrival of Beryl will likely encourage more downstream inventory builds.
Otherwise, we suggest that oil and gas demand is still underestimated in most forecasts, take our monthly look at critical mineral markets, talk more about EVs, and search for the elusive high-priced buyer of hydrogen.

Exhibit 1: Decarbonizing current hydrogen production is far cheaper than making most green hydrogen – CCS is key.