Cheap & Cheery In The States, Pensive Pounds In Europe – Western Restructurings Underway Amid Global Oversupply

Companies Mentioned: LyondellBasell, ExxonMobil, SABIC, BASF, Celanese, Dow, AdvanSix, Air Products, Ingevity, Chevron, Next Decade, Texas LNG, Driftwood, Oxy, Shell, YPF, Petronas, TotalEnergies, Microsoft, Air Products, Dominion Energy, Eastman, Masdar, Deere
Commodities Mentioned: Ethane, Naphtha, Natural Gas, LNG, Crude Oil, Ethylene, Propylene, Butadiene, Polypropylene, Paints, Coatings, Acetic Acid, VAM, , NGLs, Ethane, Glycol, Styrene, Polyethylene, Hydrogen, CO2, Wind Power, Solar Power, Ethanol

Key Findings

General Thoughts: USGC ethane prices declined to a fresh YTD low and fell relative to Ex-US naphtha values this week, further lifting the North American ethylene production cost advantage favoring many Ex-US asset reviews.
Supply Chain/Commodities: We discuss LyondellBasell 2Q results and the strategic review of its European assets, the causes of the Celanese 2024 profit guidance cut, and highlight several other chemical sector business updates.
Energy/Upstream: We update our petrochemical feedstock data sheet to examine developments in the US, Asia, and Europe to frame cost curve determinants and flag relevant news items, including Exxon and Chevron results.
Sustainability/Energy Transition: European PPAs, amid a push toward electrification and low-carbon production, remain underway; however, they do not lack challenges, and we discuss several items worth consideration.
Downstream/Other Chemicals: We highlight YTD volume trends in North American rail traffic, as chemicals are the second strongest AAR category. We also flag more agriculture sector news amid crop price weakness.