Boosting US Hydrocarbon-Based Products Looks Very Profitable: Be Careful with Trade Barriers

We see expanded NGL and ethylene terminal plans, plenty of people ordering new ships, and (the first of) a new round of North American ethylene expansion. A low-cost, lower-carbon export opportunity for the US.
By far the most obvious opportunity for the US is to supply very high-cost Europe, but Europe will need to feel very comfortable that the US is there as a friend for the very long term. Hence the concerns around Trump.
However, even with the advantage of US hydrocarbon-based inputs, clean or otherwise, Europe still has high costs of moving downstream, and here the threat comes from ever higher quality products from China.
Our monthly look at Agriculture notes that farm incomes are hitting extreme lows as crop prices collapse, and there are implications for fertilizer demand and pricing, and 2^nd order implications for fuels and blue ammonia.
Otherwise, we look at the growing LNG market, Kamala Harris’ assertions on competing for AI with China, while we are already failing with hydrogen, and we discuss cancellations in energy transition investments

Exhibit 1: US ethylene production based on ethane feedstock reflects some of the lowest costs globally.