As Good as It Gets? North American Chemical Margin Strength to Lessen as Production Returns, Absent More Disruptive Events!

Chemical Market Trends: US integrated spot ethylene margins and US spot PDH unit margins increased last week as costs declined while ethylene and propylene prices strengthened amid lingering production issues.
Polymer Market Trends: Global spot polymer prices were mainly lower last week. However, North American spot polyethylene (PE) integrated margins held near YTD highs as US ethane values fell more than PE prices.
Feedstock Market Trends: USGC ethane values fell ~10% last week compared to less than a 1% drop in Ex-US naphtha values, keeping Ex-US naphtha values toward the high end of the 10-year range relative to US ethane.
Agriculture Market Trends: US ammonia prices strengthened last week, outpacing strength in global natural gas prices and reflecting notable benefits for domestic ammonia producers despite a weak crop price setting.

Exhibit 1 – Chart of the Day: US ethylene margins remain near YTD highs as Asia and Europe struggle to turn a profit.