Global Propylene Markets Further Loosen WoW; Most Derivative Prices Will Likely Be Pulled Lower!

Chemical Market Trends: Global spot propylene price weakness WoW adds to the downward trend since mid-August. Global ethylene markets have seen more relative price support, which we think will reverse soon.
Polymer Market Trends: US spot PP markets face downward pressure from falling global prices and eroding upstream support, resulting in spot PP prices reflecting weakness that we think could worsen into 4Q24.
Feedstock Market Trends:USGC spot propane has fallen ~19%, and Ex-US naphtha has declined ~5% during the past 30 days compared to an uptick of ~12% in USGC ethane – a trend favoring more cracker co-products.
Agriculture Market Trends: Since reaching YTD lows in 2Q24, global ammonia prices have bounced to reflect YTD highs in many markets – lifted producer profit will likely result in more production and lower prices ahead.

Exhibit 1 – Chart of the Day: Global spot propylene prices fall WoW; Asia and Europe prices are at or near YTD lows.