C-MACC Sunday Thematic, Sustainability and Weekly Recap
US Natural Gas’ Kids – A Confident Teenager, A Trust Fund Baby and an Unwanted Stepchild!
- While prices are low, the US natural gas industry is mostly very healthy and the high spending at Gastech was a clear sign all is good – there was far more good free coffee (and plusher carpets) than at CERAWeek for example.
- But the story is mostly about LNG, and the growth the US has seen and is yet to see, with new offtake deals signed almost daily last week, driving new projects forward – the world has concluded that it needs more gas.
- Blue hydrogen/ammonia was also well represented, but as the new businesses of majors for the most part, only one independent project was well represented – green hydrogen (the stepchild) was largely absent.
- Related to the rise in US natural gas production we look at more plans to consume US NGLs in other parts of the world – we see the possible new demand in Asia, and the ship orders but we are missing export capacity.
- Otherwise, we take our monthly look at Ag – ammonia and stock prices are adrift from crop prices in the US, we look at a BASF and Gevo plans and more methane to hydrogen (through pyrolysis).
Exhibit 1: LNG has done best although the volatility in NextDecade reflects the volatility of an unfunded project. Natural gas revenue estimates for Range show constant negative revisions so the stock anticipates a bounce in gas prices.
Source: Capital IQ
See the PDF below for all charts, tables, and diagrams
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