Global Manufacturing Conditions Are Weak, But Europe Is The Region Experiencing Halloween Early!

Companies Mentioned: ExxonMobil, AkzoNobel, Lanxess, Ube Corporation, Ineos, Ineos Styrolution, Kuraray, Trinseo, Shell, Petronas, PetroChina, KOGAS, Mitsubishi, Dow, Peyto, McDermott, Santos, TotalEnergies, PepsiCo, Unilever, Nestle, Colgate-Palmolive, LyondellBasell, Lotte Chemical, Chamboni, Clorox, L’Oreal, Danone, Kimberly-Clark, Modelez, Berry, Borealis, Yara, QM Recycled Energy
Commodities Mentioned: Crude Oil, Ethylene, Polystyrene, Benzene, Natural Gas, LNG, Polymers, Recycled Plastics, R-PET, Hydrogen, Ammonia, Polyethylene, Polyvinyl Chloride

Key Findings

General Thoughts: Global manufacturing activity remains generally weak amid oversupplied conditions. While we see a mixed setting ahead for Asia and North America, we take a much more cautious view of Europe in 4Q24.
Supply Chain/Commodities: We highlight the ExxonMobil 3Q24 business update, further European producer restructuring, global refinery, and ethylene margin trends. Global ethylene margins are facing declines, WoW.
Energy/Upstream: Alberta natural gas prices have fallen below Permian, Marcellus, and Henry Hub levels, and we highlight the upcoming start-up of LNG Canada and chemical production in the region likely to stay advantaged.
Sustainability/Energy Transition: Most brand owner targets for plastic use and recycled content for 2025 will likely fall short of their ambitions, and we offer a few views on the need for higher prices and chemical recycling.
Downstream/Other Chemicals: We discuss the US port strike resolution and US polyethylene (PE) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) producers taking a sigh of relief, though their profit margins still face downward pressure in 4Q24.