3Q24 Good, 4Q24 Bad, 2025 Off to The Races?!?

Companies Mentioned: LyondellBasell, Eni, Air Products, Linde, Praxair, AdvanSix, Avient, Repsol, ExxonMobil, Nova Chemicals, Westlake, OxyChem, Formosa, Shintech, Aramco, Chevron, PBF Energy, Shell, TotalEnergies, Dow, Eastman, Nikola, Ford, Lummus, Mitsui, Asahi Kasei, Intel, Mastercard, Kellanova, Church & Dwight
Commodities Mentioned: PGP, PP, PE, Ethylene, Industrial Gas, Hydrogen, Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Carbon Dioxide, Hydrogen, Nitrogen, Industrial Gas, EVs

Key Findings

General Thoughts: We discuss takeaways from a few global chemical sector earnings reports, which mostly expect a weak 4Q24 but anticipate improvement in 2025 – beyond seasonal factors, some will still face a rocky 2025.
Supply Chain/Commodities: We highlight takeaways from LyondellBasell on domestic PE and PP markets from its 3Q earnings call, Linde results related to their strategy compared to Air Products, and other sector 3Q reports.
Energy/Upstream: We highlight ExxonMobil and Chevron results, discuss differing views of crude oil refinery margins in 2025 among operators, and flag the planned closure of the LyondellBasell Houston refinery in 2025.
Sustainability/Energy Transition: We discuss Linde’s involvement in a Dow Fort Saskatchewan growth project and flag LyondellBasell and Eastman projects in advanced recycling, among other relevant sector updates.
Downstream/Other Chemicals: We discuss most chemical sector management teams signaling better demand conditions globally in 2025, following interest rate cuts and government stimulus, and its impact on expectations.