What Would Be More Helpful – A Rally Around A Fake Declaration, or a Hard Reset for Hydrogen?

Key Points

The goal at COP29 is to get broad support for a hydrogen declaration, signed by as many attendees as possible but the commitments sought will be challenged by what defines “clean” and in addition, rising costs.
The reversal of hydrogen project momentum this year SHOULD force the COP29 delegates to look beyond an affirmation of what they would like to do and focus on what they should do; near term alternates are needed.
Project momentum has stopped in the US ahead of the election and in our view 45V is the program most at risk with a change of administration. But green hydrogen is in trouble in many countries because of costs.
We look at some of the ammonia producers’ earnings reports – all of which have a degree of clean/green initiatives, some moving forward more quickly than others – blue hydrogen/ammonia still looks good.
Both Cooley May and Graham Copley will be in New Orleans next week for the Ammonia Energy Association.

Exhibit 1: The COP29 declaration will be hotly debated as different participants will want the word clean defined differently