Unsubsidized: How Big Is the Market for Incentive Free Hydrogen? US Blue Making More Sense

Key Points

We face a significant change in hydrogen’s fortunes, with possible moves from the US only serving to lay bare the extreme unfavorable economics of making green hydrogen in a power constrained world.
National security focus in Europe may accelerate (where possible) renewable power investments, and power management could expose some hydrogen opportunities; eventual surplus power could drive hydrogen later.
For now, we need to accept that near-term green hydrogen momentum is going to slow meaningfully outside of China and select projects in the Middle East and North Africa, backed by low-cost Chinese equipment.
Those still looking for green hydrogen for specific end markets will need to be sure that the consumers can pay for something that will be much more expensive than expected – green fertilizers, fuels, and materials.
Is it a coincidence – the first time since we started this report that there are no new projects? Note that we employ the same methodology to look for announcements each week.

Exhibit 1: Hydrogen winners and losers since the election.