Housing Market Improvement Likely In 2025 Relative To 2024; US Spot PVC Prices Fall to YTD Low & Relative To Asia In November

Key Findings

General Thoughts: US spot PVC has sunk to a YTD low in November amid seasonally weak demand and ample global supply – housing market improvement in 2025 appears likely to us but does not suggest surging PVC prices.
Supply Chain/Commodities: US spot integrated PVC production margins remain generally healthy despite weak prices due to an advantaged cost position. We also discuss downward pressure on lithium prices into year-end.
Energy/Upstream: We discuss the crude oil market, where outlooks remain mixed towards production relative to demand – Brent Crude prices are now near a YTD low, with this trend being negative for global chemical prices.
Sustainability/Energy Transition: A significant takeaway from the AEA conference is the positive views toward blue production as a decarbonization enabler, and we flag some of the uncertainties still surrounding CCUS.
Downstream/Other Chemicals: We discuss Home Depot 3Q24 results, highlight recent movements in mortgage rates in the US, and generally conclude with a more constructive housing improvement in 2025 relative to 2024.