C-MACC Weekly Sustainability and Energy Transition Report
Recycling The Recycling Story for 2025 – No Help from the Virgin Polymer Markets
- 1st Topic of the Week: With global virgin polymer markets weak at the end of 2024 and likely to have a weaker year in 2025 because of global oversupply, the backdrop for recycling in 2025 does not look encouraging unless brand owners quickly decide to pay more to lift recycler returns – so far, this has not been the case.
- 2nd Topic of the Week: European SAF mandates begin this month, and fuels are being imported from as far away as China because of limited local availability. We look at the consequences of real fuel shortages, if not this year, then as mandates rise. European SAF projects are facing severe cost hurdles.
- Otherwise – We note a CCS approval in California.
Exhibit 1: Weak virgin plastic prices are bad news for recyclers, and the poor returns in 2023 and 2024 may look good versus what we expect for 2025

Source: Bloomberg and C-MACC Analysis January 2025
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