Global Weekly Catalyst No. 262

General Thoughts: Global chemical feedstock costs, on average, reflect greater support than base chemical prices last week, and global feedstock cost developments suggest a flattening of petrochemical cost curves.
Feedstocks & Energy: US natural gas values surged higher last week than Crude oil and Ex-US natural gas, and US spot ethane values rose relative to Ex-US naphtha – Asia feedstock buyers benefited the most WoW.
Olefins: US and Europe spot ethylene values rose last week relative to weakness in Asia, and we observe US and European propylene also strengthened relative to Asia WoW – a negative trend for Western buyers.
Other Base Chemicals: We focus again on Western spot methanol prices, following a period of significant strength, moderating relative to notably lower Asia levels – we expect this general trend to continue in 2025.
Agriculture: Recent strength in crop prices is broadly a plus for farmer spending and nitrogen-based fertilizer demand, though Ex-US natural gas weakness last week relative to US prices suggests greater global supply.
Refining & Biofuels: US crude oil refinery margins and US ethanol production margins declined last week, with higher costs not being met by price upticks – we remain generally cautious beyond seasonal factors.

Exhibit 1 – Chart of the Day: Regional avg. Spot ethylene margins relative to 2024 and their 5- and 10-year averages.