ET, Phone Home: Commodity Chemicals Need Rescuing

C-MACC Sunday Executive Summary

ET, Phone Home: Commodity Chemicals Need Rescuing

• Global commodity chemical markets began 2025 on a weak note, with many producers pitching the market as near a cyclical bottom with their 4Q24 earnings reports. Some views risk keeping 2H25/2026 outlooks too high.
• US commodity chemical equities have underperformed the overall S&P chemicals sector index in 2024 and YTD in 2025. We take a cautious view, as we foresee lingering oversupplied markets and risks to 2H25 expectations.
• Following the 4Q reports last week, we provide our general views on polyolefins cycle upside potential, capacity rationalizations favoring near-to-medium-term Chlor-vinyl market support, and opinions on US refining in 2025.
• Last week, we published the January 2025 edition of our polymer pricing expectation service and held a webcast on the global polyethylene market. Contact us to request a copy of the report and presentation.
• Otherwise, we discuss European ammonia producer margins turning negative last week and its import tariff review, rising EU export market woes, and the Canadian Chemical Industry Association’s view of Trump tariffs.

Exhibit 1: US Commodity Chemical Equity underperformance has worsened relative to the S&P 500 Chemical Index YTD.

Source: Bloomberg, C-MACC Analysis, January 2025

See PDF below for all charts, tables and diagrams