Global Weekly Catalyst No. 266

Base Chemical Global Analysis

Global Weekly Catalyst No. 266

• General Thoughts: Global Base Chemical markets were mixed WoW, with feedstock cost movements resulting more in most regional margin shifts than from product price movements, and we flag relevant trends in 1Q25.
• Feedstocks & Energy: US, Europe, and Asia natural gas prices reflect strength relative to Brent Crude oil prices, and we also highlight strength WoW in USGC spot ethane and propane relative to Ex-US naphtha values.
• Olefins: US spot polymer-grade propylene (PGP) prices rose last week relative to Europe and Asia, but US TX-grid spot ethylene declined relative to both markets – USGC production movements remain a focus in 1Q25.  
• Other Base Chemicals: European spot methanol prices declined significantly last week, falling more toward Asia and relative to US spot levels – the US methanol price premium is also likely to lessen relative to Asia in 2025.
• Agriculture: Global ammonia spot prices held up WoW, amid rising global natural gas prices, announced plant closures abroad, and sturdy corn prices – on average, we estimate European margins were negative last week.
• Refining & Biofuels: US ethanol production margins collapsed last week to their lowest level since April 2020, per our model, amid higher corn costs and weaker prices. Crude oil refinery margins improved a bit last week.

Exhibit 1 – Chart of the Day: The C-MACC Global Base Chemical Price Index holds up WoW; other sector indicators fall.  

Source: Bloomberg, C-MACC Analysis, February 2025