Beyond the Barrel: LPG, Methanol, and a World in Transition

Companies Mentioned: ChemOrbis, Celanese, OCI Korea, DuPont, Methanex, ADNOC, Cosmo Energy, LyondellBasell, Hanwha, OCI, Lotte Chemical Titan, Dow, Invista, Enterprise, Energy Transfer, Targa Resources, Oneok, MPLX, Phillips 66, Aramco, Woodside Energy, Clean Hydrogen Works, ExxonMobil, Fertiglobe, Carbios, H2Global, Nutrien, Corteva, CF Industries, John Deere, CNH Brand, Philip Morris
Commodities Mentioned: Methanol, Hydrogen, Ammonia, Acetic Acid, Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM), Polypropylene (PP), Polyethylene (PE), LPG, Propane, PDH, NGL, Natural Gas, Carbon Dioxide (CO2), Recycled PET (Polyethylene Terephthalate)

Key Findings

General Thoughts: We discuss weak spot acetic acid and vinyl acetate prices in China relative to methanol as an example of regional derivative product oversupply and why think the near-term setting is unlikely to change.
Supply Chain/Commodities: Western methanol price premiums relative to Asia expanded in 2024 but are now falling – the most significant weakness YTD has been in Europe, suggesting a US methanol price drop in 1H25.
Energy/Upstream: We discuss the build-out of more US LPG export capacity compared to estimated domestic production during the next few years, which we view as more positive for domestic LPG sellers than buyers.
Sustainability/Energy Transition: We discuss USGC low-carbon ammonia production and export market growth, and flag the launch of a second H2Global auction benefiting low-cost producers in the Americas & the Middle East
Downstream/Other Chemicals: We discuss the prospect for more US corn plantings relative to soybeans, and why we foresee a better environment in 2025 for crop input sellers relative to agriculture machinery suppliers.