Global Weekly Catalyst No. 268

Base Chemical Global Analysis

Global Weekly Catalyst No. 268

• General Thoughts: Global chemical prices primarily reflect downward pressure WoW, with some of the largest drops appearing in the US spot market amid weak derivative demand and despite its feedstock cost strength.  
• Feedstocks & Energy: US natural gas and USGC ethane prices increased relative to European and Asia natural gas, crude oil, and Ex-US naphtha last week, suggesting tighter margins for North American producers WoW.
• Olefins: US and Europe spot ethylene prices declined relative to Asia last week. However, production issues and restructuring in the West remain relative support factors, as Asia sees generally weak derivative demand.  
• Other Base Chemicals: US spot methanol prices moved lower last week compared to Europe and Asia, though still reflecting a premium to both – we expect Western methanol spot prices will move closer to Asia in 2025.
• Agriculture: Global ammonia spot prices held up WoW, though feedstock movements pinched North American margins more than Europe and Asia. Corn prices fell slightly last week, but we stay constructive on this market.
• Refining & Biofuels: US ethanol production margins remained negative and showed little change last week. US crude oil refinery margins declined WoW, but they remain 18% higher than levels seen at the start of 2025.

Exhibit 1 – Chart of the Day: Naphtha and natural gas price weakness improved Europe’s relative cost position WoW.  

Source: Bloomberg, C-MACC Analysis, February 2025