Global Weekly Catalyst No. 272

Base Chemical Global Analysis

Global Weekly Catalyst No. 272

• General Thoughts: Methanex posted its non-discounted reference price for North American methanol in April, which reflects a 10-year high compared to US spot methanol prices. This price spread is likely to fall in 2Q25.  
• Feedstocks & Energy: Brent crude oil rose relative to global natural gas prices WoW, with US natural gas falling more than Ex-US markets, which we broadly view as a plus at the feedstock level for US chemical producers.
• Olefins: Global spot olefin prices were mixed WoW, with global butadiene prices showing weakness across all markets. US spot ethylene prices fell with USGC ethane, and US spot propylene generally rose with propane.
• Other Base Chemicals: Global spot benzene prices saw some support WoW, helped by recent improvements in feedstock prices that helped slow and eventually turn the market amid still generally weak global demand.
• Agriculture: US corn price strength  relative to soybeans is a plus for ammonia use into spring planting season – recent weakness in global natural gas prices suggests more production, likely keeping ammonia prices in check.
• Refining & Biofuels: US ethanol production and inventory rose through mid-March, with export volume taking a hit. US ethanol production margins have been negative since mid-January – a challenging setting for producers.

Exhibit 1 – Chart of the Day: Methanex North American non-discounted methanol reference prices relative to US spot.  

Source: Bloomberg, C-MACC Analysis, March 2025