Global Weekly Catalyst No. 273

Base Chemical Global Analysis

Global Weekly Catalyst No. 273

• General Thoughts: North American natural gas prices reflect upward support relative to European and Asian values WoW, and this trend appears likely to persist in 2Q25, with US interregional spreads also tightening.   
• Feedstocks & Energy: Global base chemical cost curves flattened a bit WoW, as Ex-US naphtha prices declined relative to USGC ethane values, and Ex-US natural gas prices decreased relative to North American levels.
• Olefins: Global base chemical prices mostly showed downward pressure, varying by product and region, with US and Europe spot ethylene falling relative to Asia, while US and Asia spot propylene fell relative to Europe.  
• Other Base Chemicals: US and European methanol prices declined ~5% last week, compared to a ~1% average spot price drop across Asia – we expect Western spot methanol prices to hold closer to Asia QoQ in 2Q25.
• Agriculture: Global ammonia spot prices reflected declines WoW, led lower by US spot values, with the setting implying pinched margins for US producers relative to Europe and Asia. Corn prices are mostly unchanged.
• Refining & Biofuels: US crude oil refinery margins increased WoW, showing a fourth consecutive weekly gain and reflecting a YTD high, while US ethanol production margins remained negative last week, per our model.

Exhibit 1 – Chart of the Day: Europe & Asia natural gas prices have declined relative to US levels YTD.  

Source: Bloomberg, C-MACC Analysis, April 2025