Global Weekly Catalyst No. 274

Base Chemical Global Analysis

Global Weekly Catalyst No. 274

• General Thoughts: Global feedstock shifts and rising protectionism are reshaping chemical competitiveness, with cost curve compression threatening US margins and favoring low-cost, globally diversified producers.  
• Feedstocks & Energy: The sharp drop in oil and feedstock prices has hastened global cost curve compression, pointing to broader margin pressure and weaker global petrochemical pricing momentum in early April.
• Olefins: The steep US spot olefin price declines amid cautious demand and oversupply concerns signal margin pressure and potential operating rate cuts. We observe feedstock prices falling more than olefin prices abroad.
• Other Base Chemicals: US spot methanol and benzene markets face diverging pressures from supply shifts and feedstock trends. A European Chlor-alkali recovery sees protectionist tailwinds and regional price support.
• Agriculture: Strengthening US corn markets are favorable for near-term ammonia demand. But, absent policy boosts from ethanol, we expect corn markets to weaken and more global ammonia production by 2H25.
• Refining & Biofuels: US Ethanol markets remain under pressure from sustained oversupply and weak margins. In contrast, refinery margins rose WoW, which outages helped, with margins reflecting a YTD high in the US.

Exhibit 1 – Chart of the Day: The global petrochemical cost curve has flattened YTD across most product chains.  

Source: Bloomberg, C-MACC Analysis, April 2025