Blueprint for 2025: Finding Value Among the Rubble

Though under pressure now, US building and construction may be the market’s most mispriced rebound story—overlooked not due to its weak current fundamentals, but because short-term pain obscures long-term value.
Unlike auto or industrial end markets held hostage by trade friction and cyclical churn, the housing recovery is driven by demographics and underbuilding—making it a rare pocket of cyclical pain with structural support.
In a market quick to punish but painfully slow to reward pivots, Westlake stands out—a mischaracterized, overlooked name with leverage to margin-rich building products and a valuation begging for a second look.
Globally, chemical and energy markets remain dislocated—trade risk, China deflation, volatile feedstock costs, and weak polymer prices pressure margins, as a weak oil market now threatens to erode US shale output.
Otherwise, capital discipline isn’t a buzzword—it’s the filter shaping the future. Projects without clear returns are stalling, cleantech is getting repriced, and only adaptive, integrated strategies are finding room to breathe.

Companies Mentioned: Westlake, Formosa, Shintech, OxyChem, Olin, Kem-One, Sherwin-Williams, RPM, PPG, Akzo-Nobel, Huntsman, Dow, LyondellBasell, ExxonMobil, SABIC, CP Chem, Braskem, Pinnacle Polymers, Repsol, OMV, Advanced Petrochemical Company, Aramco, Sinopec, Phillips 66, Chevron, Shell, APA, Equinor, Mubadala Energy, Occidental Petroleum, Woodside, Stonepeak, RWE, BP, Samsung E&A, Elliott Investment Management
Products Mentioned: Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC), Polyurethane (PU), Polystyrene (PS), Polyethylene (PE), Polypropylene (PP), Ethylene, Epoxy, Chlorine, Caustic Soda, Propane, Propylene, Crude Oil, Shale, Natural Gas, LNG, Fossil Fuels, Hydrogen

Exhibit 1: US Mortgage Rates Elevated, Builder Sentiment Low — Poised to Improve by 2026?