Global Weekly Catalyst No. 275

Base Chemical Global Analysis

Global Weekly Catalyst No. 275

• General Thoughts: Diverging global ethylene margins—US squeezed, Europe and Asia rebounding—signal a strategic crossroads, challenging assumptions about closures and downstream price stability into mid-2025.  
• Feedstocks & Energy: Declining global feedstock costs—led by sharp drops in crude oil, naphtha, and natural gas—signal sustained downward pressure on chemical prices, absent significant outages or a demand revival.
• Olefins: Diverging olefin trends—US margins squeezed by sharper spot price declines despite feedstock relief, while Europe and Asia strengthen—highlight strategic buying opportunities amid rising US export discounts.  
• Other Base Chemicals: We discuss the sharp decline in US spot benzene prices relative to Europe and Asia, the weakness in Europe and Asia spot methanol relative to US levels, and provide a few thoughts on Chlor-Alkali.
• Agriculture: Global ammonia spot prices held up WoW, though global natural gas prices trended lower, which benefits producers and implies lower prices are likely in the future despite sturdy corn market fundamentals.
• Refining & Biofuels: US ethanol margins slipped to deeper negative levels WoW, pressured by corn strength and weak ethanol prices. US crude oil refinery margins fell from recent YTD highs amid more production.

Exhibit 1 – Chart of the Day: US spot ethylene production margins fall to YTD low; Asia and Europe reach YTD highs.  

Source: Bloomberg, C-MACC Analysis, April 2025