Global Weekly Catalyst No. 280

Base Chemical Global Analysis

Global Weekly Catalyst No. 280

• General Thoughts: Global chemical markets are diverging as infrastructure, energy costs, and trade policy increasingly dictate competitiveness, shifting advantage toward integrated, low-cost, and flexible producers.
• Feedstocks & Energy: Infrastructure constraints and policy shifts—not resource abundance—drove global feedstock shifts last week – US natural gas fell 12%, Brent crude rose modestly, and cost spreads widened.
• Olefins: Global olefin markets were mixed last week amid supply shocks and trade shifts, with US propylene prices firming relative to European and Asian declines. USGC propane values increased ~11% last week.
• Other Base Chemicals: Aromatics and methanol markets reflect tightening conditions and shifting dynamics, as supply disruptions, regional imbalances, and feedstock volatility shape global competitiveness and pricing leadership.
• Agriculture: Ammonia prices held steady as the North American producer cost advantage improved, and corn price support is a demand plus. Fertilizer prices in Europe and Asia reflected downward pressure last week.  
• Refining & Biofuels: Global crude oil refiners continue to enjoy strong margins, which will likely spur production by 2H25. US ethanol margins improved to breakeven, but are likely to struggle amid high costs and oversupply.

Exhibit 1 – Chart of the Day: US spot PGP prices reflect upward support in May, as most markets abroad weaken.   

Source: Bloomberg, C-MACC Analysis, May 2025