Global Weekly Catalyst No. 281

Base Chemical Global Analysis

Global Weekly Catalyst No. 281

• General Thoughts: Global spot commodity chemical prices have declined year-to-date as the production cost curve flattened. Despite a mixed setting last week, most prices will likely see downward pressure in June.
• Feedstocks & Energy: Natural gas prices in Europe and Asia increased last week relative to US levels, a trend that we observe as underappreciated in light of the focus on crude oil ahead of the May 31^st OPEC meeting.
• Olefins: A global capacity surge and regional price splits in olefins signal a looming margin squeeze, keeping US ethylene production margins and co-product prices under sustained downward pressure in June and into 2H25.
• Other Base Chemicals: Global spot benzene prices declined last week, with further declines likely in the near term based on feedstock and production trends. Meanwhile, Ex-US cost strength will likely help support methanol prices.
• Agriculture: Global spot ammonia prices were mostly steady last week as ex-US production costs rose relative to US costs WoW. We expect downward price pressure as farm demand lessens and supply increases in 2H25.  
• Refining & Biofuels: US crude oil refining and ethanol margins fell last week, with refining margins falling from YTD highs and ethanol margins moving further negative—summer fuel demand key to improvement for both.  

Exhibit 1 – Chart of the Day: Global base chemical spot prices and US commodity chemical equities reflect YTD lows.

Source: Bloomberg, C-MACC Analysis, May 2025