Global Market Analysis

Chaos Theory: When Markets Sink, Leaders Swim

May 29, 2025

Companies Mentioned: Lithium, Nickel, Brine, Natural Gas, LNG, Chemical Feedstocks, Electricity, Hydrogen, Ammonia, Ethanol, Renewable diesel, Corn, CO₂, SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel), Methanol
Commodities Mentioned: Methanex, Celanese, Wacker, Kuraray, LyondellBasell, Mitsui, SQM, Rio Tinto, Codelco, Standard Lithium, Equinor, ExxonMobil, LG Chem, SK On, Chevron, Entergy, We Energies, Cheniere, Canadian Natural Resources, Energy Transfer, Kyushue Electric, BP, Conestoga Energy, Gevo, Green Plains, Archer-Daniels-Midland, Bunge, Cargill, Shell, TotalEnergies, Eni, OMV Petrom, CycleØ, OMV, Framatome, Uniper, Thyssenkrupp Uhde, Warradarge, Xodus, Wood, Dicks Sporting Goods, Best Buy, Boeing

Global Market Analysis

Chaos Theory: When Markets Sink, Leaders Swim

Key Findings

General Thoughts: Global methanol spot price weakness obscures margin pressures facing many of its producers, which we think favors price support into 2H25. Western methanol buyers are likely to stay better positioned YoY.
Supply Chain/Commodities: Strategic capital drives lithium sector reshaping as resilient firms seize downturn opportunities, secure assets, leverage cost advantages, and position for significant long-term gains amid volatility.
Energy/Upstream: US natural gas use for power generation has been surprisingly tepid YTD, but we expect its demand will rise alongside export market tailwinds and emerging supply risks, which sets up a bullish price setting.
Sustainability/Energy Transition: Hydrogen credit strategies intersect with shipping’s clean evolution, US ethanol producers optimize assets to boost returns, and EC mandates drive transformative CO₂ infrastructure investment.
Downstream/Other Chemicals: Global freight rates, on average, have moved higher since the easing of US-China trade tensions, and we discuss US durable goods demand and housing market activity heading into late 2Q25.

* We will publish our May US polymer pricing report tomorrow (Friday, May 30) and combine our weekly sustainability and hydrogen research into the Sunday Executive Summary because of the Memorial Day holiday week.

Exhibit 1: Global methanol spot prices have trended lower YTD; cost curve support likely limits further downside.