Global Weekly Catalyst No. 283

Base Chemical Global Analysis

Global Weekly Catalyst No. 283

• General Thoughts: Freight rates surged, intensifying cost pressures on chemical exporters as feedstock and energy prices rebound, compressing margins globally and prompting greater caution in June and into 2H25.
• Feedstocks & Energy: Crude oil and natural gas prices broadly increased last week implying cost pressure, with US natural gas prices rising more than those in Europe and Asia, suggesting greater margin pressure in the US.
• Olefins: Global olefin markets were mixed last week. US spot ethylene, propylene and butadiene markets were flat-to-up last week, while Europe propylene saw the greatest global gains and Asia butaidene was weakest.  
• Other Base Chemicals: Ex-US spot methanol prices increased last week, while US methanol prices fell despite strength in feedstock costs – we anticipate global spot methanol prices to reflect upward support in June.
• Agriculture: Global ammonia markets weakened last week, and we expect greater production in 2H25 to keep margins in check, preferring those with cost advantaged positioned in North America and the Middle East.  
• Refining & Biofuels: US crude oil refining and ethanol spot margins decreased last week. US ethanol prices fell more than corn costs, and US refining margins were impacted by greater production and higher feedstock costs.

Exhibit 1 – Chart of the Day: Global average container freight rates spiked higher last week amid surging activity.

Source: Bloomberg, C-MACC Analysis, June 2025