Achy Breaky Margins (But Don’t Tell My Assets)

Companies Mentioned: Dow, TotalEnergies, INEOS, Repsol, Covestro, Sasol, Sherwin-Williams, Taekwang Industrial, Again, Diamond Infrastructure Solutions, Macquarie, NOVA, LyondellBasell, Olin, Valero, Marathon Petroleum, Phillips 66, HF Sinclair, Darling Ingredients, Diamond Green Diesel
Commodities Mentioned: Polyethylene, Ethylene, Crude Oil, CO₂ (carbon dioxide), Diesel, Gasoline, Ethanol, Corn, Renewable Diesel, Natural Gas, Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), Biogas, Low-Carbon Fuels, Carbon, Hybrid Vehicles, Diesel Fuel, Gasoline/Petrol

Key Findings

General Thoughts: Amid cyclical strain, firms like Dow and TotalEnergies are rewiring industrial resilience through capital agility, asset discipline, and scaling more defensible platforms to curb volatility and enhance returns.
Supply Chain/Commodities: Dow’s global asset reset and US$6bn capital unlock preload margin torque, buffer volatility, and sharpen operating leverage through disciplined execution and precision-tuned portfolio alignment.
Energy/Upstream: As US refining margins crest in 2H25, ethanol could gain footing via tightening RINs, resilient co-product lift, and compliance economics that may offer rare durability in an otherwise volatile fuels landscape.
Sustainability/Energy Transition: Darling’s grip on verified domestic feedstocks, SAF pivot optionality, and policy-savvy deferrals make it a standout as scarcity redefines renewable fuel margin and credit dynamics.
Downstream/Other Chemicals: Europe’s hybrid vehicle surge and the global container freight rate slump signal a recalibrating global economy, where flexibility, not scale, now defines most international industrial winners.