The Times They Are A-Changin’: From Crops to Kilowatts, Strategic Control is King

Margin leadership is shifting from crop input sellers to crop buyers. Record US yields, weak exports, and curbed farmer spending will likely compress 2026 farm input seller profits despite resilient nutrient application rates.
Structural grain demand growth persists, but in 2026, the oversupply risk from Brazil’s acreage expansion and US yield gains favors integrated, cost-advantaged operators with bundled service offerings and export agility.
Low-carbon ammonia’s future pricing power hinges on disciplined capacity deferrals, certified market access, and integration with tariff-advantaged areas, with offtake less of a risk than tighter near-term gas spreads.
Valuation mispricing in commodity chemicals ignores ongoing portfolio repair, with 2026 poised to reward those converting cyclical distress into defensible market share ahead of the next structural upcycle.
Otherwise, blue ammonia momentum suggests a reshaping of global trade in 2026, midstream control elevates infrastructure into pricing power, and tighter US power markets appear inevitable to us through 2030.

Companies Mentioned: Dow, LyondellBasell, Huntsman, Corteva, Bayer, Nutrien, CF Industries, Mosaic, Fertiglobe, LSB Industries, ADM, Valero, Rabdan, Air Products, ExxonMobil, ADNOC, ONEOK, MPLX, Enterprise, Energy Transfer, Phillips 66, Westlake, Beazer Homes, Trex, Siemens Energy, AES, Emera, First Solar, Enverus, Rolls-Royce, NEMA, Issaquena Green Power, JERA, Mitsui, Linde, Aramco, Chevron, Woodside
Products Mentioned: Corn, Soybeans, UAN (Urea Ammonium Nitrate), Ammonia, Natural gas, NGL (Natural Gas Liquids), LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas), PVC (Polyvinyl Chloride), Hydrogen, Urea, Biofuel, Renewable diesel

Exhibit 1: US agriculture sector equities have outperformed in 2025; low crop prices in 2H25 to keep sentiment in check.