Energy Transition Becomes Energy Turbulence: Scarcity, Sovereign Risk, Volatility

Key Findings

General Thoughts: Electricity prices are rising despite cheaper natural gas, and this is not only a US story, as power generation and the related costs of infrastructure developments to meet surging demand struggle to keep pace.
Supply Chain/Commodities: Amid government policy uncertainty and rising costs, many growth projects are stalling as producers either position themselves in a wait-and-see mode or await more return clarity to advance.
Energy/Upstream: Curtailing renewables cements natural gas as the US structural backbone, where LNG exports, electrification, and data centers drive demand, embedding volatility into power markets and industrial margins.
Sustainability/Energy Transition: As US power markets shift away from renewables, stranded projects, collapsing confidence, and capital investment appear likely to turn toward other areas, though many challenges remain.
Downstream/Other Chemicals: Container freight remains have fallen YTD, and the US Dollar has depreciated in 2025 relative to most major currencies; both positive for US export competitiveness despite weak demand.