Food Security Anchors Value, Resin Surplus Anchors Risk

C-MACC Sunday Executive Summary

Food Security Anchors Value, Resin Surplus Anchors Risk

• Agriculture equities compound through corn stability, ammonia firmness, and ethanol export strength, as commodity chemicals wane under relentless Chinese production and protectionist barriers shifting trade flows.
• Investor confidence rewards fertilizer discipline and durable food demand. At the same time, commodity chemical valuations sink until credible closures emerge and policy-proof strategies ensure return resilience.
• 4Q softness will sharpen the focus on management credibility with 3Q results and outlooks: Agriculture players should be conservative and confident, while commodity chemical players will require more explicit milestones.
• Looking into 2026, agriculture remains structurally advantaged by policy anchors and global demand, while commodity chemicals’ fate hinges on subtraction (not capacity addition), simplification, and access control.
• Otherwise, Western methanol premiums increase relative to Asia, lithium balances precariously, Lanxess monetizes optionality, PDH margins compress, exports reset power while policy volatility rewires winners. 

• Companies Mentioned: ABB, Yokogawa, Emerson, Schneider Electric, Carbon Clean, Utility Global, Alfa Laval, Spirax-Sarco, GEA, Siemens, Holcim, Sipchem, INEOS, Formosa, Lanxess, Advent, DSM, Envalior, Albemarle, Rio Tinto, SQM, Codelco, Xinjiang Xihai, Energy Transfer, ONEOK, MPLX, Targa, Phillips 66
• Products Mentioned: Polyethylene, Polypropylene, Polyvinyl Chloride, Methanol, Ethanol, Ammonia, Nitrogen, Propane, Propylene (PGP), Natural gas, Crude oil, Naphtha, LPG, Ethane, Copper, Lithium, Corn, Soybeans, Wheat, Beef, Poultry, UAN (Urea Ammonium Nitrate), Hydrogen

Exhibit 1: From fields to factories: US chemical sub-sector equity performance split along structural fault lines.

Source: Bloomberg, C-MACC Analysis, September 2025

See PDF below for all charts, tables and diagrams