No Pain, No Grain – Ammonia Highs Squeeze Corn Profits, Can Soybeans Seize the Moment?

Key Findings

General Thoughts: Ammonia remains firm amid outages, yet narrowing Atlantic gas spreads, soybean rotation, and supply additions cap upside, shifting value to reliability, demand, and low-carbon positioning into 2026.
Supply Chain/Commodities: Saudi producers advance as Aramco boosts downstream integration and SABIC adds capacity, as scale gives way to coordinated value chains anchored by gas and capital amid persistent oversupply.
Energy/Upstream: Global natural gas price spreads compress in 4Q25 as US suppliers balance flows, pipelines move to unlock Permian optionality, and LNG growth sustains demand, favoring infrastructure players into 2026
Sustainability/Energy Transition: Low-carbon economics pivot from subsidies to integration as Eastman scales methanolysis and ADM realigns its biofuel platform, as companies push to lift margins considering policy volatility.
Downstream/Other Chemicals: Soybean prices rise in the US and Argentina to favor soy plantings relative to corn in 2026, while trade and demand uncertainty continues to cap sentiment, despite recent US-China trade news.