Margin Defense Mode Activated: Cost Curves Strike Back Globally

Companies Mentioned: H.B. Fuller, RPM International, OMV, Dow, LyondellBasell, ExxonMobil, Formosa Plastics, SABIC, LNG Canada, Texas LNG, Woodside Energy, JERA, Albemarle, Glencore, Rio Tinto, Amazon, Maersk, COSCO Shipping, Hapag-Lloyd, ZIM, Hyundai Merchant Marine
Commodities Mentioned: Polyethylene (PE), Polypropylene (PP), Ethylene, Propylene, Naphtha, Ethane, Crude Oil, Natural Gas, LNG, NGLs, Ammonia, Methanol, Lithium, Copper

Key Findings

General Thoughts: Early 2026 chemical sector updates signal margin defense over volume, as pricing, self-help, and restructuring offset weak demand, policy uncertainty persists, and capacity shifts shape outcomes.
Supply Chain/Commodities: Cost shifts anchor polymer markets, with price stabilization favoring disciplined global producers, as feedstock divergence and restructuring pressures redefine margin profiles in 2026.
Energy/Upstream: North American natural gas remains structurally advantaged, with LNG contracting lifting feedgas demand as upstream supply expansions underpin regional price spreads through 2026.
Sustainability/Energy Transition: Across decarbonization and critical minerals, execution, processing depth, and economics outweigh ambition, shaping 2030 outcomes around bankability, policy, and concentration.
Downstream/Other Chemicals: Maersk’s Red Sea re-entry signals freight rate deflation and a restoration of cost-curve discipline, intensifying restructuring pressure across shipping and chemical markets through 2H26.