Slicked Back: Restructuring Clears the Field, Global Alignment Drives the Outlook

Key Findings

General Thoughts: Global chemical restructuring optimizes footprints, shrinks effective supply, and embeds optionality, positioning low-cost, low-carbon assets like Dow’s Path2Zero to lift returns in the cycle ahead.
Supply Chain/Commodities: Structural closures and Asian consolidation are curbing chemical supply ahead of demand, improving market balance in 2026 and lifting the odds of operating leverage expansion in 2027.
Energy/Upstream: Rising power needs put natural gas among the fastest reliability solutions, as timeline constraints shift capital toward grid hardening, on-site generation, and service-backed power models.
Sustainability/Energy Transition: Grid bottlenecks are the electricity market pacing constraint, shifting value to power, transmission, and electrification backlogs, where pricing power and returns can compound.
Downstream/Other Chemicals: US Dollar volatility is reshuffling value by reinforcing commodity floors and inflating costs abroad, strengthening US export advantages as policy challenges import competitiveness.