Scrap Now, Returns Later: West Gets Tested

Companies Mentioned: Umicore, ABTC, CF Industries, JERA, Mitsui, Energy Transfer, Republic Services, Blue Polymers, Occidental, Climeworks, Heirloom, CarbonCapture, The Andersons, Green Plains, POET, Meta, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, KKR, EQT, Energy Impact Partners
Commodities Mentioned: Lithium, Nickel, Cobalt, Manganese, Copper, Hydrogen, Ammonia, Natural Gas, LNG, PET, Methane, Ethanol, Corn, Soybeans, RINs

1st Topic of the Week: With scrap still dominant and China’s costs falling, Western battery recyclers are forced to secure contracts, utilization, and pricing power before retirements scale and margins compress.
2nd Topic of the Week: In structurally tight capital markets and persistent policy volatility, which platforms compound durable returns, and which capital-intensive narratives are already sliding toward cancellation?
Otherwise, are global markets underestimating how reliability premiums and integration moats are reshaping sustainability returns while policy noise masks structural power shifts?

Exhibit 1: China’s recycling share exceeds its EV share, signaling manufacturing-led material loop dominance.