Like a Wrecking Ball: Unprepared Cost Models Get Crushed, Control Still Calls The Shots

Key Findings

General Thoughts: Industrial value is shifting toward integrated systems that manage energy, logistics, and continuity to protect margins, as disruption fragments markets and limits standalone cost advantages.
Supply Chain/Commodities: Proven procurement capability enhances pricing power, enabling formulators to move prices ahead of costs, protect margins, and take share as disruptions shift competitive positioning.
Energy/Upstream: Permian oil-driven supply growth is compressing local gas prices, transferring value downstream, and reinforcing US export dominance through feedstock advantage and global pricing leverage.
Sustainability/Energy Transition: Transition winners will integrate renewables, gas, storage, and firm capacity, as grid constraints and energy security set pricing power, margins, and global trade advantage.
Downstream/Other Chemicals: Dollar weakness enhances US integrated chemicals’ global competitiveness, reinforcing the feedstock advantage while expanding export pricing power and realized margins.