Against the Wind: Margins Build Upstream, Global Buyers Get Squeezed

Key Findings

General Thoughts: Downstream industries face acute input inflation, as price-driven outcomes and selective policy support delay adjustment, leaving many exposed despite rising upstream and infrastructure profits.
Supply Chain/Commodities: Tight ammonia balances are lifting margins globally, as constrained supply and policy limits sustain elevated pricing, test end-market demand, and drive a lagged global supply response.
Energy/Upstream: Value is shifting to midstream control points, as record volumes and export constraints increase the role of infrastructure in shaping realized pricing, directing flows, and influencing margin timing.
Sustainability/Energy Transition: Energy transition capital is concentrating in networked systems, as reshoring and selective hydrogen deployment favor infrastructure with deliverable supply and pricing power.
Downstream/Other Chemicals: Germany’s business sentiment decline signals that energy inflation is shifting from cost pressure to demand risk, and weakening industrial confidence is spreading across Europe.