Current Account: Cheap Energy Is Not a Blank Check

Key Findings

General Thoughts: Wide energy-cost gaps are filtering capital toward projects that secure advantaged inputs and credible demand before infrastructure constraints or policy shifts materially dilute expected returns.
Supply Chain/Commodities: Ammonia pricing increasingly favors producers that pair low-cost energy with market reach, as weak phosphate demand breaks the usual link between disrupted supply and higher prices.
Energy/Upstream: US feedstock economics are supporting export infrastructure rather than another broad cracker buildout, even as weaker naphtha assets abroad begin losing reinvestment priority.
Sustainability/Energy Transition: Europe’s clean-energy auction rules target wind and solar supply chains, rewarding compliant equipment before manufacturing scales and testing tolerance for higher support costs.
Downstream/Other Chemicals: PG&E’s capital cut shows how uncertain liability and cost-recovery rules can raise financing costs, delaying grid investment even as electricity demand accelerates across markets.