C-MACC Weekly Sustainability and Energy Transition Report
Corn Again: Ethanol Rebounds, Growers Seek a Share of Fuel Credits
- 1st Topic of the Week: Ethanol’s rebound could support nitrogen volumes without restoring pricing power, as fuel credits shift competition toward documented crop performance and access to qualifying grain.
- 2nd Topic of the Week: Hydrogen equipment orders can recover before fuel economics improve, favoring suppliers with executable contracts and producers aligning electricity costs with contracted sales.
- Additionally, battery reuse and biofuel imports can meet demand without matching domestic production growth, weakening investment cases that equate consumption gains with local capacity.
Exhibit 1: US Ethanol Margins Reach 2026 Highs Alongside Gasoline’s Widening Price Premium Over Ethanol.
Source: Bloomberg, C-MACC Analysis, October 2026
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