Global Weekly Catalyst No. 353

Base Chemical Global Analysis

Global Weekly Catalyst No. 353

• General Thoughts: High regional energy costs can prevent higher chemical prices from bringing idled plants back online, sustaining local supply constraints without a broad recovery in customer demand.
• Feedstocks & Energy: Asia’s shrinking LPG discount and Europe’s widening gas premium weaken the case for profitable cracker production increases through year-end despite recovering Middle East crude exports.
• Olefins: USGC ethylene offers for late November and December could limit sustained Asian price gains, despite cracker maintenance restricting the cargoes available to buyers seeking earlier delivery.
• Other Base Chemicals: Europe’s rising gas costs favor methanol imports over local restarts, allowing overseas suppliers to gain orders without stronger consumption by downstream customers.
• Agriculture: India’s lowest urea tender prices attracted no additional supply commitments, leaving substantial buying unfinished as nitrogen costs rise and grain prices pressure farm budgets.
• Refining & Biofuels: Costlier crude oil compressed US refining spreads despite diesel shortages; cheaper corn improved ethanol margins, but softer sales could pass part of that benefit to buyers.

Exhibit 1 – Chart of the Day: Propylene’s Regional Split Shows Why Asian Price Gains Cannot Establish Global Recovery

Source: Bloomberg, C-MACC Estimates, October 2026