Global Weekly Catalyst No. 356

Base Chemical Global Analysis

Global Weekly Catalyst No. 356

• General Thoughts: Overseas energy prices fell faster than many downstream prices last week, and regional price gaps will likely narrow where higher-cost producers pass more of those savings on to buyers.
• Feedstocks & Energy: European naphtha and natural gas prices fell WoW as Asian naphtha widened its premium over USGC ethane and propane, but sustained crude weakness should put downward pressure on naphtha globally.
• Olefins: Europe’s ethylene selloff narrowed the opening for US cargoes, giving local sellers some protection from import competition through December if freight and handling absorb the remaining price difference.
• Other Base Chemicals: A shrinking US premium over Asian prices could keep more benzene in Asia, but cheaper natural gas alone is unlikely to bring idle European methanol or caustic capacity back this winter.
• Agriculture: Western European ammonia import prices rose despite lower estimated local production costs, and USGC granular urea edged higher relative to US corn prices.
• Refining & Biofuels: US distillate stocks fell as refinery utilization rose, weaker octane values likely deepened benzene’s selloff, and cheaper corn helped US ethanol producers preserve margins as selling prices fell.

Exhibit 1 – Chart of the Day: US Spot Benzene Slips Below Europe and Nearly Matches Asia

Source: Bloomberg, C-MACC Estimates, November 2026