Sunday Executive Summary

Looking for light at the end of a very dark 2023 tunnel for chems

December 11, 2022

Companies Mentioned: Dow, Nova Chemicals, LyondellBasell, Braskem, Oxy, Westlake, Linde, Air Liquide, Huntsman, PPG, Celanese, DuPont, BASF, Johnson Matthey, Umicore, Axalta, ExxonMobil, Pinnacle Polymers, Ineos, TotalEnergies, Enbridge, Trafigura, Summit Midstream, Fertoz, Versalis, Lotte Chemical, Givaudan, Nouryon, Azelis, Santos, Chemours, BP, Gevo, Cespa, Pertamina, Covestro, Ford, KLM, KBR, Nikola, Orsted, Walmart, Gap, Shell, Sasol, CP Chemical, Baystar, Sinopec, Evonik, Wacker, Borealis, Trillium Renewable Chemicals, Ultium, Chemfab Alkalis, LG Chem, Posco Chemical, Trinseo, Ferroglobe, Fusion Fuel, Axens, TC Energy, Adama, Mosaic, Sun Hydrogen, Sempra, Blackrock, Ecopetrol, OCI N.V., AeroVironment, Canfor, NRG, TSMC, Coca-Cola, Tesla, Goldman, Air Products, Yara, British Airways, United, Olin, Orbia, Chlorum, Chevron, Formosa Plastics, Inter Pipeline, AES, Aramco, Ioneer, OQ, Röhm, SABIC, Solvay, Berry Global, Eneco, MOL, CATL, Evergreen, Sunwoda, Amogy, Ballard Power Systems, Williams, Entergy, Dominion Energy, Coterra Energy, SK Enmove, Phillips 66, Valero, Enterprise Products, Clorox, Blackstone, OMV, Eastman, Albemarle, Compass Minerals, Ganfeng Lithium, SQM, Livent, Shandong Energy, Italmatch, Cummins, Maire Tecnimont, Avina Clean Hydrogen, ArcelorMittal, CNH Industrial, CEMEX, Aker Carbon Capture, Avanti Helium, Kemira, Enverus, Coterra, Dominion
Commodities Mentioned: Plastics, PVC, PP, PE, PU, PC, PS, PET, Minerals, Carbon Dioxide, Hydrogen, Natural Gas/NGLs, Crude/Naphtha, Fossil Fuels, Nuclear, Ethane, Ethanol, Ethylene, Ethylene Glycol, Recycled Polymers, Sugar, Corn, SAF, Biodegradable Polymer, Ammonia, Urea, Polyurethanes, Glass, EVs, Coal, Caustic Soda, Chlorine

C-MACC Sunday Thematic & Weekly Recap 147

Looking for light at the end of a very dark 2023 tunnel for chems

Our concerns around the fate of the global chemical industry for 2023 are now consensus, and while we are looking for what could go right – there is not much.
There is significant interest in what is happening with ESG investing. We see a bruised industry with more bruising ahead in 2023, but a strong long-term future.
We cannot understate the severe challenges facing the German chemical industry – a lot will likely shut down, and import dependence will rise further.
We see trouble ahead in US polyethylene, with stable and very high contract prices at significant odds with all other global pricing – this will end in tears.
More data is emerging to suggest that the polymer recycling model could break badly, with pricing declining quickly below what are largely high fixed costs.

See PDF below for all charts, tables and diagrams