Whiskey River – Recent Petrochemical Margin Shifts To Spur Global Production, Hangover Likely Ahead

Daily Chemical Reaction

Whiskey River – Recent Petrochemical Margin Shifts To Spur Global Production, Hangover Likely Ahead

Key Points:

• Global polymer prices fell WoW, with US and European values falling more on average than Asia – we discuss this trend alongside Asia production costs and rising India polymer imports.
• NW European and Asia natural gas prices have fallen considerably relative to US levels in 1H23, and the recent drop in US shale/fracking activity suggests US market price support near term.
• We highlight the record level of India plastic imports, compare US Ethylene and Chlor-alkali production costs to NW Europe, and flag QoQ growth in NW Europe chemical production.
• We discuss the Bunge and Nutrien partnership in agriculture supply-chain sustainability, GHG emissions from the agriculture sector relative to other emitters, and a recent UN plastics report.
• Target reports consumer demand headwinds, while T.J. Maxx has a better view, which suggests US retail spending headwinds in some areas amid a shift toward discounted products.

See PDF below for all charts, tables and diagrams