C-MACC Hydrogen Weekly Update 15
Very Little The World Can Do To Stop China Dominating Green Hydrogen
- Weekly Theme: The China Advantage, Again!
- News Update
- Projects Update
- Ammonia/Methanol Update
- Power Update
- Next Week: CO2 Clean-Up A Roll For Hydrogen
Key Points
- Rapid local investment in green hydrogen in China will drive economies of scale for equipment producers, and this is something lacking in the West, allowing China to gain more competitive edge.
- Changes in the Chinese power markets may also provide a boost for green hydrogen makers if grid connectivity can deliver cheap hydro and solar power to regions that can use the hydrogen.
- Meanwhile, some of the delays in the West are cost-driven – costs are rising in the West, while they continue to fall in China – electrolyzer manufacturing capacity is likely to overshoot 2024/5 demand.
- The competitive edge in Europe and the US is likely blue hydrogen rather than green, although it is not clear that China will gain a significant sales edge from going green early – prices remain too high.
- Otherwise, we look at several new blue projects, even more US capacity to build electrolyzers, and falling capacity factors in US solar and wind, not encouraging for US green hydrogen.
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