Weak Clean Energy Mineral Markets Challenge Investment, Fortify China’s Dominant Position

Monthly Report – Critical Minerals

Weak Clean Energy Mineral Markets Challenge Investment, Fortify China’s Dominant Position

Key Findings

• General Thoughts: The C-MACC Clean Energy Mineral Index fell 53% in 2023, closing the year at YTD low, as energy transition growth failed to offset a weak economy and rising supply that favors slower investment.
• Supply Chain/Commodities:  Lithium was the worst performer in the C-MACC Clean Energy Mineral Index in 2023, with copper reflecting the most support. Separately, we discuss PDH-unit and bromine cuts in China.
• Energy/Upstream: Brent Crude Oil reflects support relative to natural gas values in Asia and Europe at the start of 2024. Cheap US natural gas/NGLs compared to Europe and Asia drive more global consumer activity.
• Sustainability/Energy Transition: We discuss Tesla, BYD, and Rivian news in the EV market, flag the falling costs of battery storage amid lower inputs, and a clean energy material upcycle setting up for 2025-2030.
• Downstream/Other Chemicals: Weak US and Europe PMI postings are not surprising amid oversupply and weak pricing, with improvement likely to be consumer-led in 2024 – expectations already appear high.

Exhibit 1: The C-MACC Clean Energy Mineral Index Fell 53% in 2023, Settling at a YTD low to Close the Year.

Source: Bloomberg, C-MACC Analysis, January 2024

See PDF below for all charts, tables and diagrams