Global Polymer Market Update – Are Early 2024 US PE Contract Price Hike Efforts Supported?

Companies Mentioned: Birla Carbon, DuPont, PPG, Capstone Copper, Dow, Formosa, Inter Parfums, Inc., Dharmaj Crop Guard, Metals Acquisition Limited, TekniPlex, Pidilite Industries, Linde, Solvay, Ineos, Energy Transfer, BP, Baker Hughes, Halliburton, Vertex, SABIC, Nova Chemicals, Braskem, TotalEnergies, LyondellBasell, Indorama Ventures, LG Chem, SK Geo Centric, Neste, ExxonMobil, Shell, Chevron Phillips, Borealis, Celanese, Uber, Sustana, Charter Next Generation, Topsoe, Circulus Holdings
Commodities Mentioned: Polyethylene, Polypropylene, Ethylene, Acrylic Acid, Cyclohexane, Propylene, Lithium, NGL, Ethane, Crude Oil, Plastic, Hydrogen, Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), Carbon, Cement

Key Findings

General Thoughts: Global polyethylene (PE) spot prices have increased in early 2024 – US producers are using this development to push contract price hikes and hold domestic contract reference levels to spot near historic highs.
Supply Chain/Commodities: We discuss global PE spot price trends relative to ethylene and US-integrated PE producer economics, reflecting the sizable US cost advantage relative to Europe and Asia that enables exports.
Energy/Upstream: The Brent Crude price has risen more relative to US natural gas than Ex-US naphtha has risen relative to USGC ethane during the past two years, and we also discuss Europe vs. Asia naphtha price movements.
Recycled/Renewable Polymers: We see mechanical recycling as more of a growth/sustainability vehicle for polymer players less concerned with using their upstream hydrocarbons than those focused on chemical recycling.
Downstream/Other Chemicals: We flag DuPont’s business update and 1Q24 guidance that missed expectations, note consensus views for global economic growth through 2026, and generally frame the plastic packaging market.