All Change: Hydrogen Forecasts are Adapting to News Flow and Project Progress (or Lack Thereof)

The Hydrogen Economy #62

All Change: Hydrogen Forecasts are Adapting to News Flow and Project Progress (or Lack Thereof)

• News Update
• Projects Update
• Ammonia/Methanol Update
• Power Update

Key Points

• The headlines we cover each week continue to include plenty of opinion pieces, and while the optimists are still there, the mix is changing. We are seeing more coverage of the limits of current ambitions globally.
• The change in tempo is backed by plenty of data about projects failing to get through FID, but it is also backed by new analysis of what will be required to meet forward energy demand and a more limited role for hydrogen.
• In most cases the lower hydrogen volumes by 2040 or 2050 are not driven by any revised view of utility – we could use as much as we can make affordably. The limits stem from production constraints and alternatives.
• Winners will be those with products/equipment in undersupplied markets – existing hydrogen producers and a few new blue projects; losers will be those building infrastructure and equipment capacity too soon.
• Otherwise, we look at some very highly subsidized projects in Europe – which still lead to expensive hydrogen, we look at the blue opportunity for ammonia in the US and discuss further power challenges.

Exhibit 1: C-MACC Production for Hydrogen vs Ranges of Expected 2050 Demand – there is too much to do post 2040

Source: Multiple Corporate Reports and Opinion Pieces and C-MACC Analysis