Copper – Put Your Pedal to the Metal Rather Than The Equities!

Key Findings

General Thoughts: The C-MACC Clean Energy Mineral Index rose 5% MoM in September after three consecutive monthly declines to reflect a 7% lower level from its YTD high in May – we take a generally cautious view of 4Q24.
Critical Mineral Supply; We discuss the YTD strength in copper prices, concerns about supply keeping pace with demand in the medium-to-long term, and why copper prices could be poised to outperform its producer equities.
Clean Energy Components, Batteries & Recycling: We flag the challenges of decarbonizing the copper market and look at recycling rates of critical minerals relative to forecasted mined and recycled copper supply and demand.
Critical Mineral Macro Demand: We highlight the broad end-market demand drivers for copper and how a rush to build out of electrical infrastructure and the potential global economic improvement favors tighter markets.

Exhibit 1: The C-MACC Clean Energy Mineral Index rose ~5% in September, down ~7% YTD after a ~53% drop in 2023.