Trump Back in The Saddle – A Critical Minerals Rodeo Is More Likely Ahead Than A Trail Ride To Tighter Markets, Stay Selective

Companies Mentioned: Freeport-McMoRan, Rio Tinto, Albemarle, Arcadium Lithium, American Lithium, Rivian, Lucid, Volkswagen, Northvolt, Mercedes-Benz, Redwood Materials, Renault, SAIC Motor, GAC, Xiaomi, BYD, VW, Porsche, BMW, GM
Commodities Mentioned: Copper, Lithium, Batteries, EVs, Power, AI, Electrolyzers, Battery Recycling, Metals, Critical Minerals, Solar Modules, Wind Turbines, Fuels, Natural Gas, LNG

Key Findings

General Thoughts: The C-MACC Clean Energy Mineral Index fell 3% MoM in October after an uptick in September to reflect a ~10% lower level from its YTD high in May – most components to remain oversupplied into year-end.
Critical Mineral Supply: We discuss the movements in a few global critical-mineral markets, why we continue to take a more positive view of copper relative to lithium, and the dominance of China in critical mineral processing.
Clean Energy Components, Batteries & Recycling: We discuss downward trending battery prices, which pull down EV costs and appear partially offset against in-place and proposed tariffs on Chinese EVs in Western markets.
Critical Mineral Macro Demand: We discuss our views of critical mineral end-market demand, most notably from EVs, following the Trump presidential win, and we highlight global EV production growth, notably in China.

Exhibit 1: The C-MACC Clean Energy Mineral Index fell ~3% in October, down ~1% YTD after a ~53% drop in 2023.