Global Polymer Prices Face Downward Pressure In 4Q24; Western Margins, On Average, Trend Lower Relative To Asia

The Weekly Catalyst

Global Polymer Prices Face Downward Pressure In 4Q24; Western Margins, On Average, Trend Lower Relative To Asia

• Polymer Market Trends: Global spot polymer prices were mainly lower (again) WoW, with Europe reflecting the most severe price declines, on average, while North America and Asia markets were much more mixed.
• Chemical Market Trends: US spot ethylene margins declined WoW in absolute terms and relative to Europe and Asia. US spot PDH margins improved WoW, and we think more weakness in US propylene is likely in 4Q24.
• Feedstock Market Trends: Ex-US naphtha and crude prices fell relative to US natural gas and ethane, and US natural gas prices rose relative to Europe and Asia – the relative North American cost advantage fell WoW.
• Agriculture Market Trends: Global ammonia producers saw their production costs increase WoW, which we view as a plus for price support. However, US producer margins declined WoW relative to Europe and Asia.

Exhibit 1 – Chart of the Day: Western integrated polyethylene (PE) margins have declined relative to Asia in 2H24.

Source: Bloomberg, C-MACC Analysis, November 2024