COP(romise): Unlikely Yet, But The Playing Field is Taking Shape

Key Points

The battle lines are clear at COP29, with the “we can’t afford it” group growing in numbers while the “we have to do it anyway” group keeps chanting. Bankruptcies are increasing and compromise is needed to avoid trauma
A year ago, we created a list of companies that we thought would not make it, and while we have not published that list, we have been quite vocal about Plug Power. HH2E was on the list – even free power is not enough!
We also see an increase in the number of stories talking about the challenges with German manufacturing economics – of all the European countries, Germany can least afford green hydrogen – blue from the US works.
To seize the blue opportunity, the US will need to pay more attention to methane emissions, and this might be an incentive program that fits well with the Trump drill doctrine, ease regulations but push back on emissions
Otherwise, we talk about Bloom Energy – the safest bet for electrolyzers now! We found projects – some large scale outside the Europe, we recap the AEA conference and show more support for higher power costs.

Exhibit 1: Despite Bloom’s great last two days we have an overall index that is looking weak, but likely not weak enough